Tuesday, 29th of April, 16.00
(16.00 Coffee & Cake in the foyer, 16.30 talk & discussion)
Lecture Hall III
After a brief journey through the history of sociophysics, and a clear clarification of what sociophysics aims to be — and what it is not — Serge Galam from CEVIPROF in Paris will illustrate its capability by presenting the foundational elements of the Galam Majority Model (GMM) of opinion dynamics. He will highlight the compelling mechanism of democratic minority spreading during open and free public debate. Drawing on the GMM, he will explain how he successfully predicted the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. He will also critically examine why my forecast for Trump’s victory in the 2020 election against Joe Biden fell short. Finally, he will conclude by presenting my insights into the robustness of the model, especially in light of the second Trump victory in the 2024 election.